World Bank raises Egypt’s growth outlook to 4.3% for FY 2025/2026

The World Bank has upgraded its growth projections for Egypt, forecasting real GDP expansion of 4.3% in FY 2025/2026 and 4.8% in FY 2026/2027, an upward revision of 0.7 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, from its April 2025 outlook.

The updated figures were released on Tuesday in the Bank’s Economic Update for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (MENAAP), titled Jobs and Women: Untapped Talent, Unrealized Growth.

The report anticipates a modest recovery in Egypt’s economy, driven by rebounds in agriculture and tourism, along with steady private consumption and increasing investment inflows.

As one of the oil-importing economies, Egypt is expected to benefit from stabilizing global conditions, though risks persist due to trade policy shifts and ongoing regional conflicts.

The report cautioned that continued instability in the Red Sea poses a threat to Egypt’s fiscal balance, as disrupted shipping routes have significantly reduced Suez Canal revenues.

Monthly losses are estimated at $800 million, with total shortfalls projected to reach $7 billion by the end of 2024. This decline has intensified foreign-exchange pressures and added fiscal strain.

Despite these challenges, Egypt’s economy showed signs of improvement in FY 2024/2025, which ends in June 2025. Real GDP grew 5 % in the fourth quarter, up from 2.4 % in the same period a year earlier — marking the country’s strongest quarterly growth in three years.

The World Bank also called on Egypt and its regional peers to address barriers preventing women’s participation in the labor market.

 The report highlighted that only one in five women in Egypt, Jordan, and Pakistan is economically active — the lowest participation rate globally, despite major gains in education and skills.

The Bank noted that removing these barriers could boost GDP per capita by 20 to 30 %.